Habitat, Life, Extinction Formulas v2

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____ habitat, life, extinction formulas v2 ____

Formulas to estimate the loss of natural habitat potential for one year, the loss of plant and animal life potential for one year, and the extinction potential from producing, packaging, shipping and using a product, service, choice, or from extracting and utilizing a raw material.
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Step 1/ Determine the CO2 emissions of the product, service or choice.
(Get the CO2 emissions from neutral sources or by using life cycle software. A rough CO2 emissions estimate can be found using the lcacalculator.com or the ecofx Raw_Materials matrix].)
Step 2/ Multiply the CO2 emissions of the product in kilograms by .77 to estimate the loss of natural habitat potential for one year in square meters.
Multiply the CO2 emissions of the product in pounds by 3.78 to estimate the loss of natural habitat potential for one year in square feet.
Step 3/ Multiply the CO2 emissions of the product in kilograms by 2.4 to estimate the loss of plant and animal life in natural habitat potential for one year in kilograms.
Multiply the CO2 emissions of the product in pounds by 2.4 to estimate the loss of plant and animal life in natural habitat potential for one year in pounds.
Step 4/ Divide 195,000,000 kilograms by the CO2 emissions of the product to estimate how many of the product (if made) would trigger 1 potential species extinction.
(To automate the math in these steps use the ecofxcalculatorV2.xls excel spreadsheet.)
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Formulas use "human appropriated net primary production (HANPP)" to "CO2 emissions" correlation.
Estimates do not include the possible long-term effects of climate change and persistent toxins.
See footnotes for formula basis, assumptions and sources.
+ v2 revision by Stele Ely +
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Thanks to the National Academy of Sciences, NASA, United Nations Environment Programme, World Wildlife Fund, EOEarth and contributing scientists that publish baseline data.
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1 kg(kilogram) = 2.2 lb(pounds)   1 m^2(square meter) = 10.8 ft^2(square feet)
1 km(kilometers) = .62 mi(miles)   1 liter = .26 gallons

Product name. Product materials. CO2 emissions to make this product, or, to extract and manufacture 1 kg/ 2.2 lb of the material. Loss of natural habitat potential for one year to make this product, or, to extract and manufacture 1 kg/ 2.2 lb of the material. Loss of plant and animal life potential for one year (in natural habitat) to make this product, or, to extract and manufacture 1 kg/ 2.2 lb of the material. How many/much to trigger 1 potential species extinction.
metric correlation formulas . # kg CO2 # kg CO2 x .77 = m^2 loss hab # kg CO2 x 2.4 = kg loss life 195 mn kg /
  # kg CO2
= trigger
non-metric correlation formulas . # lb CO2 # lb CO2 x 3.78 = ft^2 loss hab # lb CO2 x 2.4 = lb loss life 429 mn lb /
  # lb CO2
= trigger
(product example)

Dress (strappy)


(CO2 from patagonia.com)
Materials.
61% org cotton, 30% recycled polyester, 9% spandex
.28 kg
.63 lb
CO2 emissions to make this product.
14 kg
31 lb
Loss of natural habitat potential for one year to make this product.
10.8 m^2
116.4 ft^2
Loss of plant and animal life potential for one year (in natural habitat) to make this product.
33.6 kg
73.9 lb
How many of this product to trigger 1 potential species extinction.
13.9 million
(material example)

Paper
virgin

CO2 emissions from lcacalculator .com
CO2 emissions to extract and manufacture 1 kg/ 2.2 lb of this material.
8.8 kg
19.4 lb
Loss of natural habitat potential for one year to extract and manufacture 1 kg/ 2.2 lb.
6.8 m^2
73.2 ft^2
Loss of plant and animal life potential for one year (in natural habitat), to extract and manufacture 1 kg/ 2.2 lb.
21.1 kg
46.5 lb
Quantity extracted and manufactured with a potential to trigger 1 extinction.
22,159 tons
_____ footnotes _____

_____________ column 1 _____________

Product name, raw material name, details and/or the source of the CO2 emissions statistic.

_____________ column 2 _____________

Other details such as the weight of the raw materials used in a product or service.

_____________ column 3 _____________

The quantity of CO2 emissions from a product, a service or a raw material in kilograms and pounds.

The source of CO2 emisssions statistics (carbon dioxide footprint) may come from::
• The raw materials matrix.
• The life cycle software at lcacalculator.com by IDC.
• The company that offers the product, service or raw material.
• Other life cycle software.
• The ecofxcalculatorV2.xls Excel spreadsheet.

_____________ column 4 _____________

"Loss of natural habitat potential" is used to describe an area of statistically typical land and/or ocean that could support a biodiverse ecosystem, but instead, is being currently used or depleted, or will be used or depleted by humankind within a current year, as a result of making or using a product or service.

The "loss of natural habitat potential" in m^2 is calculated by multiplying the kg of "CO2 emissions" from making, packaging, shipping and/or using a product or service, by the metric correlation factor of .77 .

For example, if a product has 100 kg of CO2 emissions, multiply the 100 kg of CO2 emissions by the metric correlation factor of .77 to get the loss of natural habitat potential for one year of 77 m^2.

For non-metric, the area of the "loss of natural habitat potential" in ft^2 is calculated by multiplying the lb of CO2 emissions by the non-metric correlation factor of 3.78 .

To automate the math, download the ecofxcalculatorV2.xls Excel spreadsheet.

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This correlation factor is based on these assumptions:
a) That the average global net primary productivity (NPP) per hectare equals the global NPP divided by the global 13.4 billion hectares of biologically productive land and water.
b) That there is a substantial correlation between the global carbon dioxide emissions of humankind, and the amount of global bioproductivity that is depleted, harvested or managed for human use (i.e. human appropriated net primary production (HANPP)).
c) That HANPP is a measure of the equivalent lost opportunity of natural habitat to maintain or establish itself.
d) That there is a substantial correlation between the carbon dioxide emissions from making or using a specific product or service, and the amount of bioproductivity that is depleted, harvested or managed for human use from making or using the product or service, based on system infrastructure sharing and multiple use interdependence.

(419,600,000,000,000 kg/ 134,000,000,000,000 m^2 = 3.13 kg per 1 m^2)

Since 1 kg of CO2 emissions correlates to the loss of life in natural habitat potential for one year of 2.4 kg of life as shown under the _column 5_ section below, we solve for 3.13 kg / 1 m^2 = 2.4 kg/ ?m^2. Therefore, ? = .77 m^2.

Therefore, the final correlation factor is .77 m^2. That is, 1 kg of CO2 emissions correlates to the loss of habitat potential for one year of .77 m^2.

The "hydrated" net primary production (NPP) of 419.6 gt was derived from the current "dry" NPP estimate of 104.9 giga-tonnes (gt) (Geider, 2001) of carbon per year.

"Dry" NPP is the quantity of carbon that is turned into biomass by autotrophs per year in the Earth's biosphere. However, this "dry" NPP excludes the weight of the other minerals and water that normally comprise living biomass.

Living organic matter is by weight about 50% carbon and 50% other minerals -- excluding it water content. In total, most organic matter is by weight at least 50% water.

Therefore, the NPP of 104.9 gt of carbon is multiplied by 2 to include the other minerals, and then multiplied by 2 again to include the water -- resulting in 419.6 gt of "hydrated life".

This correlation does not include the possible long-term effects of climate change and persistent toxins. The correlation does estimate the loss of habitat potential for one year in the current year based on HANPP.

More info and forums regarding formulas are at ecofx.org.

_____________ column 5 _____________

"Loss of plant and animal life potential for one year in natural habitat" is used to describe the weight of the life that could live in an area of statistically typical land and/or ocean that could support a biodiverse ecosystem, but instead, is being currently used or depleted, or will be used or depleted by humankind within a current year, as a result of making or using a product or service.

The weight of "loss of plant and animal life potential for one year (in natural habitat)" in kg is calculated by multiplying the kg of "CO2 emissions" from making, packaging, shipping and/or using a product or service, by the correlation factor of 2.4 .

For example, if a product has 100 kg of CO2 emissions, multiply the 100 kg of CO2 emissions by the metric correlation factor of 2.4 to get the "loss of life potential for one year in natural habitat" of 240 kg.

For non-metric, the lb of "loss of life potential for one year in natural habitat" in lb is calculated by multiplying the lb of CO2 emissions by the non-metric correlation factor of 2.4 .

To automate the math, download the ecofxcalculatorV2.xls Excel spreadsheet.

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This correlation factor is based on these assumptions:
a) That there is a substantial correlation between the global carbon dioxide footprint of humankind, and the amount of global bioproductivity that is depleted, harvested or managed for human use [i.e. human appropriated net primary production (HANPP)].
b) That HANPP is a measure of the equivalent lost opportunity of natural habitat to maintain or establish itself.
d) That there is a substantial correlation between the carbon dioxide emissions from making or using a specific product or service, and the amount of bioproductivity that is depleted, harvested or managed for human use from making or using the product or service, based on system infrastructure sharing and multiple use interdependence.

The correlation factor is found by::

Multiplying the weight of the global net primary production (NPP) of the land, by the percentage of human appropriated net primary production (HANPP) of the land, to get the weight of the HANPP of the land.

Multiplying the weight of the global net primary production (NPP) of the oceans, by the percentage of human appropriated net primary production (HANPP) of the oceans, to get the weight of HANPP of the oceans.

Adding the weight of the land HANPP to the ocean HANPP, and then dividing by the global output of carbon dioxide by humankind, to get average kg of CO2 per kg of HANPP. The result is the _column 5_ correlation factor.

The 2007 NPP estimates 56.4 giga-tonnes (gt) from terrestrial lifeforms per year, and 48.5 gt from ocean lifeforms per year -- totaling 104.9 gt (Geider, 2001). Both the 56.4 gt and 48.5 gt are then multiplied by 4 to adjust these "dry" NPP carbon statistics from the research papers we have sourced to include the other minerals and water present in most living organic matter. This results in 225.6 gt of "hydrated" terrestrial life, and 194 gt of "hydrated" ocean life -- totaling 419.6 gt.

In other words, because dry organic matter is about 50% carbon and 50% other minerals, both the 56.4 gt and 48.5 gt are multiplied by 2. Also, because living organic matter is at least 50% water, they are multiplied by another 2.)

A terrestrial HANPP percentage of 23.8% was sourced via Global human appropriation of net primary production by H Halberl et al. So, 23.8% x 225.6 gt = 53.7 gt of "hydrated" terrestrial life NPP.

An ocean HANPP percentage of 6% that was estimated by Stele Ely is used because marine HANPP estimates have not been found in peer reviewed sources. This 6% is probably very low, and is loosely based on ...brave new ocean and other papers. Contact ecofx.org if you have a suggestion or comment. So, 6% x 194 gt = 11.6 gt of "hydrated" ocean life HANPP.

Therefore, 53.7 gt + 11.6 gt = 65.3 gt of global "hydrated" HANPP life per year.

Then, to get the correlation factor, the 65.3 gt of "hydrated" HANPP is divided by humankind's annual CO2 emissions of 27.25 gt.

(65,300,000,000,000 kg / 27,250,000,000,000 kg = 2.4 kg of potential life loss per 1 kg of CO2.)

In other words, 1 kg of CO2 corresponds to the loss of 2.4 kg of life potential in natural habitat for one year.

This correlation does not include the possible long-term effects of climate change and persistent toxins. The correlation does estimate the loss of plant and animal life potential for one year (in natural habitat) in the current year based on HANPP.

More info and forums regarding formulas are at ecofx.org.

_____________ column 6 _____________

"Trigger 1 potential species extinction" is used to describe how many of a product (if they are made) it would take to result in the release of the amount of CO2 emissions that correlates to one extinction in a current year -- considering the CO2 emissions released by that product.

The "trigger 1 species extinction" number is calculated by dividing the correlation factor of 195,000,000 kg, by the kilograms of "CO2 emissions" from making, packaging, shipping and/or using a product or material.

For example, if a product has 400 kg of CO2 emissions, divide the 400 kg of CO2 emissions into 195,000,000 kg to get 487,500 of the product to trigger 1 potential species extinction.

For non-metric, divide the 880 lb of CO2 emissions into 429,000,000 lb to get the extinction trigger of 487,500.

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This correlation factor is based on this assumption:
a) That there is a substantial correlation between the global carbon dioxide footprint of humankind, and the number of estimated yearly extinctions.
b) That there is a substantial correlation between the carbon dioxide emissions from making or using a specific product or service, and the degree to which extinction potential increases in that year, based on system infrastructure sharing and multiple use interdependence.

This correlation factor was determined by dividing the total global CO2 emissions of 27,245,758 tonnes of humankind in 2004 by an estimate of 140,000 species extinctions per year (Future of Biodiversity, L. Pimm).

(27,250,000,000,000 kg / 140,000 extinctions = 195,000,000 kg of CO2 emissions per year per extinction)

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The above formulas may be used to estimate the ecological effects of other products too. Other formula resources are at ecofx.org/papers.htm and ecofx.org.
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